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Tempest Tactics

Tempest Labs / Signal

Tempest Signal

Tempest Signal is a Tempest Labs research initiative in strategic scenario intelligence: scenario modelling, synthetic environments and decision-support systems.

Open the NATO-Russia forecast

Publishing principles

How each analysis will be structured

Model output will never be presented as established fact. Each analysis will have its own permanent page, and updates will be recorded on that page rather than replacing it.

Mountain valley terrain at dusk seen from high ground.

  1. 01

    Observed information

    Facts from external sources, each with a citation.

  2. 02

    Model output

    What the model or simulation produced, labelled as output, not as fact.

  3. 03

    Analysis

    Interpretation of the output, kept separate from both.

  4. 04

    Uncertainty

    What is not known and how much the conclusions depend on it.

  5. 05

    Sources

    Organisation, title, date and direct link for each external input.

  6. 06

    Dates

    Publication date and date of the last substantive update.